The latest seasonal forecast was released by the ANSO MISSPAD project on May 25, 2020. Based on the FGOALS-f2 Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System from IAP/CAS, the China Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System (CMME) from Beijing Climate center, and GOLDEN prediction system from Beijing Normal University, a weak South Asian summer monsoon will occur this summer, during the decaying period of the Central-Pacific El Nino. The Indian Peninsula will have negative rainfall anomaly and prone to widespread drought disasters. Particularly, the monsoon rainfall will be less than average by more than 20 percent in western Nepal and northwest Pakistan. Precaution should be made to reserve water for industrial and agricultural production.
The rainfall will be more than average by 10~20% in Sri Lanka, a tropical island nation on the Indian Ocean. In addition, the precipitation is predicted to increase by more than 50% over eastern Pakistan, which may lead to debris flow and landslide. Therefore, special attention should be paid to regional flooding, and precaution be made according to the real-time short-term prediction.
Figure 1. The summer (JJA) precipitation anomaly percentage (%) predicted by ANSO MISSPAD for 2020.
-ANSO MISSPAD （The Multi-model-Integrated Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction and Application in Disaster Risk Reduction）
-FGOALS-f2 （The FGOALS-f2 Subseasonal to Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System）
-CMME (The China Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System)
Qing Bao and Ke Wei, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Jing Yang, Beijing Normal University