[ANSO MISSPAD Newsletter] ANSO MISSPAD Project Predicts a Warmer Spring 2021 in Burma and Increased Precipitation in the Middle of Thailand over Indo-China Peninsula

12 03, 2021

The latest seasonal forecast was launched by the ANSO-MISSPAD project in Feb 2021 based on the FGOALS-f2 seamless forecast system developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS). It predicts more convective precipitation over the middle of Thailand, the south of Maritime Continents, the central part of the South Indo-China Peninsula, the South China Sea and parts of the Philippine Islands this Spring in the decaying phase of a La Niña event. The temperature in most Indo-China Peninsula will be on par with previous years. In Burma, the temperature anomaly is more than 0.5-1℃ higher.

1.More rainfall is predicted near the middle of Thailand, increasing the risk of floods and relevant geological disasters.

According to the recent predictions, released by the FGOALS-f2 in Feb 2021, there is more rainfall in the middle of Thailand, Philippines islands and the Maritime Continent in Southeast Asia, especially in the middle of Thailand where the precipitation anomalies can exceed 100%. Moreover, the negative precipitation anomaly mainly locates over the west of Burma, increasing the risk of drought in local region.

Figure 1. Precipitation anomaly percentage (%) predicted by ANSO MISSPAD for the boreal Spring (March-April-May) of 2021.

2. A warmer spring is predicted over Burma in the Indo-China Peninsula.

According to the latest predictions, the surface air temperature anomaly is about the same as usual in most Indo-China Peninsula. The average temperature in the west Burma is predicted to be 0.5-1℃ higher than usual.

Figure 2. The temperature anomaly (℃) predicted by the FGOALS-f2 Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction System of ANSO MISSPAD for the boreal Spring(March-April-May) of 2021.

More Information：

The Multi-model-Integrated Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction and Application in Disaster Risk Reduction

The FGOALS-f2 Subseasonal to Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System

The China Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System

Copywriter: Bian He，Jinxiao Li and Yao Tang

Review: Ke Wei，Qing Bao

Picture: Lei Wang