The latest seasonal prediction was updated by the ANSO-MISSPAD team on May 28, 2022. The temperature is predicted to be higher than normal for about1.0 ℃ over Central Asia. Central Asia will have more rainfall than usual in the southern part. The prediction is based on FGOALS-f2, which is a real-time weather and sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction system, developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS). FGOALS is now a member of S2S Project of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and World Climate Research Programme (WCRP).

1. More rainfall is predicted in the southern part of Central Asia

The seasonal forecast was updated in May 2022. It indicates that the negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific will continue in the summer of 2022 (June, July, and August). According to the latest seasonal forecast, the Central Asian region will have more precipitation in the summer of 2022 (June, July, and August) in the southern region, mainly in Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The percentage of precipitation anomaly in south Central Asia reaches >200%, indicating relief of the drought climate and high risk of flash floodings.While less rainfall is predicted in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Rainfall in Kazakhstan is near normal.

Figure 1. The Summer (JJA) precipitation anomaly percentage (%) predicted by the FGOALS-f2 Sub-seasonal-to-seasonal Prediction System of ANSO MISSPAD for the Summer of 2022.

2. A hotter summer is predicted.

According to the ANSO MISSPAD S2S prediction system, a hotter summer is predicted in Central Asia, with a temperature anomaly of at least 1.0℃ in most regions. In Tajikistan and western Turkmenistan, the temperature anomaly reaches >1.5 ℃ higher than usual. This will tend to cause water resource shortages in Central Asia, especially the northern part.

Figure 2. The Summer (JJA) temperature anomaly percentage (℃) predicted by the FGOALS-f2 Sub-seasonal-to-seasonal Prediction System of ANSO-MISSPAD for the Summer of 2022.

More information: 

lThe Multi-model-Integrated Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction and Application in Disaster Risk Reduction

lThe FGOALS-f2 Subseasonal to Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System

Copywriter: HE Bian，LI Jinxiao and TANG Yao

Review: WEI Ke，BAO Qing

Picture: WANG Lei