The latest seasonal forecast was released by the ANSO MISSPAD project in May 2022. It predicts more convective precipitation near the Maritime Continent (mainly the islands of Indonesia) this summer due to the decaying of the La Niña event. While Indonesia will experience unusually high precipitation, possibly leading to floods and other geological disasters in some areas. From June to August in 2022, the average temperature in Southeast Asia will be slightly higher than usual, and the temperature in Indo-China Peninsula will be about 0.5℃ higher. The Marine continental area is higher than 1 ° C.

1. A tremendous number of rainfall is predicted near the Maritime Continent, increasing the risk of floods and relevant geological disasters.

According to predictions by the FGOALS-f2_v1.3 of IAP/CAS and the China Multi-Mode Ensemble (CMME) of the National Climate Center in May 2021, the precipitation in Southeast Asia was significantly more in the maritime continent, especially in Indonesia, with the percentage of precipitation anomaly exceeding 100% in most areas, which increases the risk of further large-scale flooding. However, the change of precipitation in Indochina Peninsula is relative small, and the probability of sustained heavy precipitation is low, but the occurrence of transient extreme rainstorm events caused by typhoon activities on the sub-seasonal scale cannot be ruled out.

Figure 1. Precipitation anomaly percentage (%) predicted by FGOALS-f2(down) for the summer (June-July-August) of 2022.

2. A normal summer similar as the climatology is predicted in Southeast Asia, while a warm pattern is predicted in the Marine continents area.

According to the latest forecast in May, in the summer of 2022, most of southeast Asia will have the same temperature as previous years, and some areas will be about 0.5℃ higher, such as Myanmar, Thailand and Laos on Indo-China Peninsula. In the tropical maritime continent, the temperature is obviously higher than 1℃ in some areas, which is one of the important reasons for the possible enhancement of local precipitation.

Figure 2. The temperature anomaly (℃) predicted by the FGOALS-f2 Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction System of ANSO MISSPAD for the summer(June, July and August) of 2022.

More information: 

lThe Multi-model-Integrated Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction and Application in Disaster Risk Reduction

lThe FGOALS-f2 Subseasonal to Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System

Copywriter: HE Bian，LI Jinxiao and TANG Yao

Review: WEI Ke，BAO Qing

Picture: WANG Lei